SK1jmFRV2YRMFRuOXbQRjU.jpg' alt='Watch Red Flag Online' title='Watch Red Flag Online' />Ways to Watch ESPN Online. No one is noticing this big red flag for the stock market. Last week, the Labor Department reported that in March, the official unemployment rate hit 4. Thats good news, of course, because it means the economy is approaching what economists call full employment. Ill discuss some of the caveats later. But ironically, in one of the markets many good news is bad news scenarios, its also a big red flag for the economy and stocks. Because since 1. 94. Bureau of Labor Statistics started reporting unemployment data, a rock bottom unemployment rate has been an excellent indicator of upcoming recessions and a very good warning sign of corrections and bear markets ahead. A rockbottom unemployment rate has been an excellent indicator of upcoming recessions and a very good warning sign of corrections and bear markets ahead. Companies annual reports can hide as much as they reveal. Investors can get early warning signals of wrongdoing by frequently speaking to other. A market correction is commonly defined as a decline of at least 1. S P 5. 00. SPX, 0. Ubisoft Official Store. Tom Clancys Rainbow Six Siege Pro League All Gold Sets. The civilian unemployment rate is the percentage of the total labor force that is at least 1. The table below, which I compiled from BLS stats, the National Bureau of Economic Research the official scorer of U. S. recessions, and respected Wall Street research firm Yardeni Research, shows the months the unemployment rate hit its low for that cycle, then the dates at which the next recession and bear market began. Anna Clendening Nervous Singer Delivers Stunning Hallelujah Cover Americas Got Talent 2014 Duration 714. Americas Got Talent 26,504,064 views. Major Relationship Red Flags to Watch Out For. These behaviors should set off your internal alarms. Sure, job interviews are nerverackingespecially if its a role you really want. But when youre in the throes of printing out rsums, rehearsing. HAWEEL Triangle Design Universal Car Air Vent Phone Holder Mount, For iPhone, Galaxy, Sony, Lenovo, HTC, Huawei, and other Smartphones Black. Recessions and bear markets follow low unemployment rates. Date of cyclical low. Lowest. Date of onset of Months to. Date of onset of Months tounemployment rateratenext recessionrecessionnext bear marketbearmarket. October 2. 00. 64. December 2. 00. 71. October 9, 2. 00. April 2. 00. 03. 8March 2. March 2. 4, 2. 00. March 1. 98. 95. 0July 1. July 1. 6, 1. 99. May 1. 97. 95. 6January 1. November 2. 8, 1. October 1. 97. 34. November 1. 97. 31. Bear market ended in October. September 1. 96. 83. December 1. 96. 91. November 2. 9, 1. June 1. 95. 95. 0April 1. January 3, 1. 96. March 1. 95. 73. 7August 1. July 1. 5, 1. 95. May 1. 95. 32. 5July 1. July 1. 5, 1. 95. January 1. 94. 83. November 1. 94. 81. June 1. 5, 1. 94. Average. 4. 19. 2. Sources Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Bureau of Economic Research, Yardeni ResearchThe S P 5. July to October 1. Yardeni Research classifies as a correctionThe S P 5. February March 1. The S P 5. 00 also corrected 1. August 1. 95. 9 to September 1. There were 1. 0 times since 1. The lowest unemployment rate ranged from 2. Each time, the cyclical low unemployment rate was followed by a recession from one to 1. The average gap between that cycles low unemployment rate and the onset of a recession was 9. Bear markets also followed low unemployment rates regularly. The nasty bear market of 1. In March 2. 00. 0, the bear market began the same month unemployment hit its low of 3. It took more than four years for a full fledged bear market to follow the cyclical low unemployment rate of 2. May 1. 95. 3 though a recession ensued a mere two months later and there were two corrections of nearly 1. Yardeni Research. Watch Glee Season 3 Online Free No Download. On average, it took nearly 1. This means that when unemployment rates get to their low points in any economic cycle, its time to start looking for the exits. There are some obvious issues in using this as an investing strategy, however. Just as economists find it notoriously difficult to predict recessions the NBER calls recessions only after theyve begun, so its hard to know when the unemployment rate has actually bottomed until after its happened. And the low unemployment rates can continue for a long time. Unemployment fell below 4 in February 1. In 2. 00. 6 2. 00. However, a low unemployment rate now may not be what it used to be. Automation and globalization have displaced millions of workers in their prime years. That and an aging population1. February March 2. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen discussed that in a Q A at the University of Michigan on Monday. Some of the decline in labor force participation might reflect a weak economy and be a kind of hidden unemployment, she said. We recognize that the unemployment rate itself might be a misleading indicator of the extent of slack in the labor market. That could mean the unemployment rate would have to fall further than in the past before we hit what economists call full employment. Or that this is the best we can expect. We wont know that until later on. But for now, the economy is still growing only around 2, and frothy post election sentiment is not yet showing up in the hard data. Meanwhile, the Fed is likely to raise short term rates at least a couple more times this year, and is even preparing to shrink its 4. So, investors are counting on strong earnings and, especially, pro growth measures from the Trump Administration and Congress to keep the eight year old bull market going. That looks increasingly unlikely as the Trump agenda smashes into the rocks of Washingtons reality. If were approaching the rock bottom low in unemployment this cycle, thats one more sign were much, much closer to the end of this long economic recovery and bull market than to the beginning. Howard R. Gold is a Market. Watch columnist and founder and editor of Golden. Egg Investing, which offers exclusive market commentary and simple, low cost, low risk retirement investing plans. Follow him on Twitter howardrgold.