For the third year in a row Macleans asked economists, investors, analysts and financial commentators to submit what they think will be an important chart Canadians should watch in the year aheadand they delivered, in spades. From the state of Canadas housing market and the energy sector to government finances and how Canada will fare under Donald Trump, these 7. Canadians for understanding the economy in the year ahead. Here they are, in no particular order. Enjoy Wheres the export recoveryDavid Watt, HSBC Bank Canada. Export recovery Wherefore art thou Canadian exports are stuck in their weakest cyclical recovery in 5. By this stage of a recoveryeight years on from the prior cycle peakexports are usually almost 6. Even in weak recoveries, exports are usually up by about 3. In the current recovery, exports are just 1. The Bank of Canada recently lowered its trajectory for export growth as it recognized that structural factors might be playing a significant role in the lacklustre recovery. Watch Less Than Zero Online 2017 James
Policy makers need to give serious thought, and take significant measures to improve Canadas export performance. Part time employment driving job growth. Beata Caranci, chief economist, TD EconomicsWhen it came to job creation, 2. From a birds eye view, 1. Returning Fall Shows Where We Left Off. May 15, 2017 500 PM EDT. Scoop on all your favorite shows Read more. Now the power elite want money, for space warriors, yes thats right, CNN reported today July 9th 2017. Also reported was all the wildfires in California and all. Despite going allin on Adam Sandler content a bizarre choice Netflix has managed to continue growing its subscriber base, recently reaching a new milestone It. CNNToday, sex seems more available to us than ever before. With just a swipe on their phones, singles can schedule their next hookup, while committed. Re Followup Whole Expo Durango CO Sept 910 a simple horseman, DonnaAZ Jeanette S Thank you for the positive comments about my informational boothCanadian landscape between January and November, which was more than each of the prior three years. But, from the ground, these jobs were in part time positions. The degree of unfavourable composition between full time and part time typically has not occurred outside of a recession period. Screen_Shot_2017-05-05_at_3.47.30_PM.600x400.png?v=1494016484' alt='Watch Less Than Zero Online (2017)' title='Watch Less Than Zero Online (2017)' />The labour market embodies the growth challenge confronting Canada, as an overweight of part time employment will depress growth in earnings and hours worked. This is a foreboding start to 2. Higher rates delayed. Scott Cameron, formerly of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, now with the Mediterranean Growth Initiative and Alma Economics. Twitter twitscottyThis isnt a charge against forecasters, who have little choice but to assume that the future will behave like the past following a shock like the global financial crisis, forecasters typically return their interest rate outlooks to an estimate based on the neutral rate that should prevail in calmer periods. And this pattern isnt limited to Canada. Tryingand failingto predict the path of rates has been a defining mark of the post financial crisis experience in economies across the world. But Canadian forecasters may soon be left alone to turn the lights off at the pity party. The U. S. Federal Open Market Committee, seeing much stronger fundamentals in Americas economic prospects, is likely to begin raising rates as early as its Dec. As we conclude a ninth year of relentless revisions, its easy to question whether interest rates in Canada will ever lift off and fulfil expectations. Destined for slower growth. Doug Porter, Chief Economist, BMO Financial GroupSomewhat overshadowed by the trauma of the global financial crisis and its aftermath, there was a critical demographic development unfolding across much of the industrialized world in recent yearsincluding Canada. There was a sharp and pronounced slowdown in the growth of the core working age population. For instance, in the past five years in Canada, the population of those aged 1. This compares with an annual growth rate that was incredibly stable and consistently above 1. Magi Sinbad Season 2. This marked slowdown in a key building block of the economys growth potential is sometimes overlooked because of a focus on the growth in the labour force population. While that measure is still rising a bit faster than one per cent per year, the gains are increasingly driven by those above the age 6. Baby Boomers. If anything, this force will gather momentum over the next decade as the peak of the baby boom was hit in 1. Even a dramatic increase in immigration, as proposed in some quarters, is not going to turn this relentless tide. Canadas economy is out of balance. David Wolf, portfolio manager at Fidelity InvestmentsIn recent years, the Canadian economy has consisted more and more of building houses and buying stuff on credit and less and less of doing things that allow us to compete now and in the future. This chart reinforces the view that rectifying the imbalance could require material further depreciation of the Canadian dollar. Watch Its Not My Fault And I Dont Care Anyway Online Metacritic here. Will Albertas job market heal Trevor Tombe, assistant professor of economics, University of Calgary. Twitter trevortombeCollapsing oil prices hit Alberta hard. The past year and a half has seen falling employment, rising unemployment especially long term, record low consumer confidence, and a ballooning provincial deficit. Many wonder when it will end 2. Canadian should watch in 2017. Macleans presents its third annual chartstravaganza to help make sense of the Canadian economy in the year ahead. Various forecasts, from the Bank of Canada, the Conference Board, and more recently ATB Financial, all suggest Albertas recession may be over and weve started down the long road to recovery. The chart to watch in 2. Albertas hopefully healing labour market. Canadas tax competitiveness is in trouble. Jack Mintz, Palmer Chair of Public Policy at University of Calgary. Twitter jackmintzCanadas effective tax rate on new investment the Marginal Effective Tax Rate reached its lowest point at 1. OECD and lowest in the G7. Since 2. 01. 2, Canada has been increasing its taxes on investment, reaching 2. OECD average it is second lowest in the G7 after Italy. With the OECD average effective tax rate continuing to decline, the U. K. reducing its corporate income tax rate from 2. United States in the coming year, the trend in Canada is starkly opposite with potential tax hikes including the carbon tax. Tax competitiveness will likely be a significant issue in the coming year. Extreme housing, Canada style. David Doyle, Canadian Strategist at Macquarie GroupPeak housing is here. Watch Less Than Zero Online 2017 СррсрThe Canadian economys dependence on housing investment is equally as stretched relative to total output as it was in the U. S. at its peak in late 2. Alarmingly, the breakdown of the contribution from subcomponents has also followed a similar path. Our chart shows the deviation that brokers commissions and other transfer costs a subcomponent of residential investment as a share of gross domestic product is from its long run average. In Canada, this is now 3. United States in late 2. The combination of i the B. C. provincial governments foreign buyers tax, ii new regulatory tightening measures of the mortgage market, and iii a recent rise in Canadian mortgage rates are likely to create headwinds for this measure in 2. Newsletters For The Win.